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A Few Facts from Blackjack Statistics

Chips and cards on the blackjack field

This article is for blackjack fans interested in all kinds of statistics. However, the information we share here will be helpful for all Casinoz readers interested in blackjack. It will help them better understand many gameplay aspects and get basic strategy recommendations.

The Proportion of Wins and Losses

If you do not take into account 9% of the deals ending in a draw, then you will lose in 52% of cases and win in 48 rounds out of 100. As you can see, the casino has the most chances here. You don't know how to turn the advantage of the casino to minimum or even tip the scales in favor of a player?

The fact is that when you lose, you lose only one bet. But you can win one and a half (in blackjack) or two (for double) bets. Thus, with an equal number of successful and unsuccessful deals, the total amount of winnings is more than the total amount of losses.

The Frequency Of Natural Blackjack

Do you know how often a player wins blackjack when following the recommendations of the basic strategy? On average, he is lucky once in twenty-one deals. You must agree it is very symbolic: twenty-one points and twenty-one rounds.

The Frequency of Busting

If you play strictly with the optimal strategy, you will gain more than twenty-one points about once in six rounds. More precisely, a bust hand occurs around 16% of the time in all deals.

The Frequency of the Dealer's Busting

But the dealer busts more often, twice in seven rounds, or 28% of game rounds. But do not rejoice at such a high figure because it is a theoretical number calculated from all possible dealers' first cards. In practice, many times when the dealer has to sort cards, the winning is his because the first customers have already gone.

It is also interesting to know that in open five or six, the dealer busts in 42% of cases. That is why the basic strategy recommends stopping at twelve to sixteen points in case the dealer has those cards.


A Few More Facts

Finally, we want to bring more interesting numbers that shed light on some aspects of blackjack:

  • The probability of losing three deals in a row is 14% (when you follow basic strategy) so be prepared to face similar troubles often.
  • The chances of getting a "hard" twelve from a deal are 17%, which is not so good because 85% of failed deals occur with these cards.
  • If a dealer has an open ace, he gets 31% of blackjack, or four out of thirteen. So, do you have to get insurance? For example, the insurance amount will be $1. Then, for the fourth dealer's blackjack, you win $8, but in other cases, you lose $9. Now you understand why insurance is not necessary.

All ideas about the basic strategy are based on these mathematical calculations. The best thing you can do while playing blackjack is to follow recommendations strictly. Just remember to choose the right plan for every type of blackjack.

Frequently asked Questions

✅ What are the true odds of winning in blackjack?

The odds of winning a hand in blackjack for a player are approximately 42%. However, it's important to understand that the dealer typically wins around 49% of hands, with the remaining percentage resulting in a push or tie. This slight advantage for the dealer, known as the house edge, is inherent in the game's rules, primarily because the player must act before the dealer. While your baseline chance of winning is 42%, applying a sound basic strategy can significantly reduce the house edge and improve your long-term prospects.

❔ How does basic strategy impact the house edge?

Basic strategy is a mathematically derived set of rules that tells a player the optimal action to take for every possible hand combination against any dealer upcard. By consistently adhering to basic strategy, players can minimize the casino's built-in advantage, bringing the house edge down to as low as approximately 0.5% in many games. This means that for every $100 wagered over a long period, you might theoretically expect to lose around 50 cents. Deviating from basic strategy, even slightly, can increase the house edge considerably, sometimes up to 4% or more.

👶 Is it true that other players' actions at the table affect my chances of winning?

This is a common misconception. While it might feel frustrating when another player makes a move that seems to "take your card" or otherwise disrupt the flow, in the long run, the actions of other players at the table do not significantly alter your statistical probability of winning. Each hand is an independent event, and the cards dealt are a product of randomness. The order of cards is mixed up regardless of whether a player makes a statistically "correct" or "incorrect" decision. Your focus should remain on applying basic strategy to your own hand.

🤑 What is the "Gambler's Fallacy" in blackjack?

The Gambler's Fallacy is the mistaken belief that past outcomes influence future ones in a game of chance. For instance, if you've lost several hands in a row, the fallacy suggests that you are "due" for a win. In blackjack, as in other casino games, each hand dealt is an independent event. The cards have no memory, and the probability of winning any given hand remains consistent, regardless of previous results. Betting more after a string of losses based on this fallacy can lead to significant financial setbacks.

💹 How does card counting change the statistics for a player?

Card counting is a technique that can shift the statistical advantage from the house to the player. It works by keeping a running tally of the ratio of high-value cards (tens and aces) to low-value cards remaining in the shoe. When there's a higher proportion of high cards left, the player's chances of getting a natural blackjack (which typically pays 3:2), doubling down successfully, and the dealer busting increase. Conversely, a higher concentration of low cards favors the dealer. By adjusting bets and sometimes playing strategy based on this "true count," a skilled card counter can gain a slight edge, often around 1%, over the casino, turning a negative expectation game into a positive one.

Denis Anipchenko
Denis Anipchenko
Editor-in-chief and online gambling expert

Denis is a true professional with many years of experience in the gambling industry. His career started back in the late nineties when he worked as a croupier, pit boss, manager and casino manager. This unique experience allowed him to deeply understand the world of gambling from the inside. Since the late noughties Denis has dedicated himself to writing articles and analyses about gambling, and since the early tens he has become a key figure in the Casinoz team. Here he not only writes and edits content, but also creates reviews, shares his expertise and helps readers understand the intricacies of gambling. Denis combines practical experience and in-depth knowledge, making him one of the most respected experts in the industry. His writings are always up-to-date, proven and useful information for anyone interested in the casino world.

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Facts checked Alex Vasilev Scientific editor and fact checker
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